On 8 December 2024, after less than two weeks of continuous fighting across the northwest area of Syria, rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized the capital Damascus, prompting the sudden flight of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Moscow and sealing the end of the notorious Assad dynasty.

The remarkably fast collapse of the brutal Assad regime, after almost 14 years of a destructive civil war, was met with widespread celebrations, both within Syria and among the millions of Syrian refugees living in exile. While the future of Syria remains highly uncertain, many Syrian refugees have already begun expressing a desire to return to Syria with a strong commitment to rebuilding their country.

Others in neighbouring countries have already rushed to Syria’s borders eager to return home and reunite with family, along with the return of many Syrians who have been internally displaced for over a decade.
In Europe, states have not only welcomed the fall of the Assad regime, but in a very premature move also rushed – within 24 hours of the collapse of the regime – to announce suspending decisions on all pending Syrian asylum claims, with some countries, as well as certain politicians from across many countries, calling for the repatriation of all Syrian refugees.

But what will the future hold for Syria? What to expect in terms of returns and the reality that refugees and internally displaced populations might face upon return? How might this current transition of power impact further displacement within and from Syria? This article explores the potential short and long-term outcomes these dramatic, largely unexpected and sudden events on Syrian displacement and mixed migration dynamics.

The unfolding events
Since the start of the civil war in 2011, the Assad regime was able to hold on to power largely due to the support from foreign allies Russia and Iran. However, with both Iran and Russia’s attention increasingly pulled elsewhere, rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamic faction stemming from Syria’s branch of Al-Qaeda and with backing from Turkey, succeeded in toppling Assad and his regime where others have failed.

Since the rebel group’s quick accession to power, its leader, Ahmad al Sharaa, has preached a message of unity for Syria, and has been quick to paint himself as open and tolerant posing no threat to minorities within Syria, or to the West. However, HTS remains a designated terrorist group according to the UN, the US, the UK and various EU countries. While many countries started paving the road to restoring diplomatic ties with Syria, many remain cautious at best, and fearful at worst, about how this transition will fare for the country.

This includes whether HTS will implement its message of unity since the fall of the Assad-regime, and be strong enough to effectively stabilise the country, or whether IS or other armed jihadist groups may take advantage of the current power vacuum in the country.
In the immediate wake of the regime’s fall, several global players have been quick to intervene, with Israel immediately launching a military offensive bombing Syria’s key infrastructure, military bases and weapons centres. On the ground, Israel also sent troops into the occupied territory of Golan Heights, advancing beyond the established demilitarised, “buffer” zone for the first time since the war in October 1973, and already approving a plan to encourage the expansion of illegal settlements in the area.

Türkiye too, has been carrying out bombing raids, concerned about Kurdish influence along its border. The United States has also launched at least 75 airstrikes in Syria to prevent IS forces from seizing weapons and territorial power during this vulnerable transition phase for the country.